Structural reliability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation and neural networks
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper examines a methodology for computing the probability of structural failure by combining neural networks (NN) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). MCS is a very powerful tool, simple to implement and capable of solving a broad range of reliability problems. However, its use for evaluation of very low probabilities of failure, of the order of magnitude currently found in structural reliability, implies a great number of structural analyses, which can become excessively time consuming. The proposed methodology makes use of the capability of a NN to approximate a function for reproducing structural behavior, allowing the computation of performance measures at a fraction of the cost of the corresponding structural analysis. This approach seems very attractive, and its main challenge lies in the ability of a NN to approximate accurately complex structural response. In order to assess the validity of this methodology, examples are presented and discussed.
منابع مشابه
Reliability-based structural optimization using neural networks and Monte Carlo simulation
This paper examines the application of neural networks (NN) to reliability-based structural optimization of largescale structural systems. The failure of the structural system is associated with the plastic collapse. The optimization part is performed with evolution strategies, while the reliability analysis is carried out with the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method incorporating the importanc...
متن کاملProject Time and Cost Forecasting using Monte Carlo simulation and Artificial Neural Networks
The aim of this study is to present a new method to predict project time and cost under uncertainty. Assuming that what happens in projects implementation which is expressed in the form of Earned Value Management (EVM) indicators is primarily related to the nature of randomness or unreliability, in this study, by using Monte Carlo simulation, and assuming a specific distribution for the time an...
متن کاملMonte Carlo Simulation to Compare Markovian and Neural Network Models for Reliability Assessment in Multiple AGV Manufacturing System
We compare two approaches for a Markovian model in flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs) using Monte Carlo simulation. The model which is a development of Fazlollahtabar and Saidi-Mehrabad (2013), considers two features of automated flexible manufacturing systems equipped with automated guided vehicle (AGV) namely, the reliability of machines and the reliability of AGVs in a multiple AGV jobsho...
متن کاملDetermining Appropriate Buses and Networks for Applying Demand Side Management Programs by Structural Analysis of EENS
The main goal of this paper is to structurally analyze impact of DSM programs on reliability indices. A new approach is presented to structurally decompose reliability index Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) by using Monte Carlo simulation. EENS is decomposed into two terms. The first term indicates EENS which is caused by generation contingencies. The second term indicates EENS which is caus...
متن کاملEstimating Reliability in Mobile ad-hoc Networks Based on Monte Carlo Simulation (TECHNICAL NOTE)
Each system has its own definition of reliability. Reliability in mobile ad-hoc networks (MANET) could be interpreted as, the probability of reaching a message from a source node to destination, successfully. The variability and volatility of the MANET configuration makes typical reliability methods (e.g. reliability block diagram) inappropriate. It is because, no single structure or configurat...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Advances in Engineering Software
دوره 39 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2008